The end of CD in 2012?

JohnG · 03 Aug 2006

http://www.side-line.com/news_comments. ... 80_0_2_0_C

Linda · **Posted:** Sun Oct 30, 2011 12:21 am

JohnG wrote:

http://www.side-line.com/news_comments. ... 80_0_2_0_C

It reads like he's making predictions based on his feelings, educated guesses no different than what anyone else could make, not based on genuine inside information:

Quote:

You read it well. The major labels plan to abandon the CD-format by the end of 2012 (or even earlier) and replace it with download/stream only releases via iTunes and related music services. The only CD-formats that will be left over will be the limited edition ones, which will of course not be available for every artist. The distribution model for these remaining CD releases would be primarily Amazon which is already the biggest CD retailer worldwide anyhow.

3 weeks ago we heard it for the first time and since then we have tried getting some feedback from EMI, Universal and Sony. All declined to comment.

The news doesn't come as a surprise to those who have been working in the business. In a piece that was published in a q&a with the Alfa Matrix people back in June 2011 in the 1st issue of "Matrix Revelations", our chief editor Bernard Van Isacker said the following when asked if a CD would still exist in 5 years: "Yes, but in a different format. Normal CDs will no longer be available because they don't offer enough value, limited editions on the other hand will remain available and in demand for quite a few more years. I for one buy only limited editions because of the added value they offer: a nice design, extra bonus gadgets, etc. The album as we know it now however will be dead within 5 years, if it isn't even sooner. I predict that downloads will have replaced the CD album within the next 2 years. I don't see that as something negative, it just has run its course, let's leave the space to limited editions (including vinyl runs for bigger acts) and downloads instead."

It's a move that makes completely sense. CD's cost money, even when they don't sell because there is stock storage to be paid; a label also pays money to distributors when CDs get returned to the labels when not sold and so on. In short, abandoning the CD-format will make it possible to just focus on the release and the marketing of it and no longer focus on the distribution (since aggregators will do the work as far as dispatching the releases to services worldwide) and - expensive - stock maintenance. In the long run it will most surely mean the end for many music shops worldwide that only stock and sell CD releases. In the UK for instance HMV has problems paying the labels already and more will follow. It makes the distribution of CDs no longer worth it.

Also Amazon will benefit from this as it will surely become the one and only player when it comes to distribution of the remaining CD productions from labels. Packaged next to regular album downloads via its own Amazon MP3 service it will offer a complimentary service.

The next monument to fall? That will be printed magazines as people will want to consume their information online where they also read most of the news.

What are your feelings? is it a move that you like or not?

However:

Quote:

The distribution model for these remaining CD releases would be primarily Amazon which is already the biggest CD retailer worldwide anyhow.

I don't doubt that this will be the way things eventually play out (and in fact has already played out for my own music collecting). But only one year from today? Nah. Compact discs get no hipster love anymore, but they're still a majority of music sales.

dustydan · 10 May 2009

We need more unemployed graphic artists anyway.

Next they'll take away our music players and just assign an IP address to our individual brain wave configuration.

Brainiac McGee · **Joined:** 10 Jun 2011 **Posts:** 2941

I don't think the CD will be dead next year, but I can't help but notice that even Walmart, home to countless $7 greatest hits comps, has drastically reduced shelf space. That can't be good.

Geff R. · 27 Sep 2006

I suspect it will be more like 5 years.

IF they offer Flac & IF the corporate greed is reduced in proportion to the reduced costs of no physical product, not sure if it will be the end of the world, though I'll miss the booklets even if i can only read them these days with reading glasses (I personally only print front & back covers).

One issue of potential concern is to the best of my knowledge it's been several years since anyone manufactured a premium cd burner. In fact again to the best of my knowledge, I don't believe there's been a single Sata cd burner that's considered on par with the old real Plextors for quality.

The burning forum I occasionally frequent seems to largely feel that while there are quality dvd burners today, that they are not optimized for cdr. That has been my experience also, though with a small sampling of burners.

of course that will only impact those like me, that prefer physical media to a hard drive.

JohnG · 03 Aug 2006

I was in Target the other day for Coldplay. The CDs are now found in one small area compared to books and movies. Plus we were the only ones even looking at CDs.

Steve · 21 Oct 2004

Your first mistake was looking for Coldplay.

ranasakawa · 26 Jan 2007

Bring on DVD-A and Blu-Ray music. As long as there are players to play them in my car.

Jimbo · 19 Jul 2006

Robert Meagher · 30 Sep 2006

I guess it is time to fill in any gaps in the collection...

Geff R. · 27 Sep 2006

Robert Meagher wrote:

I guess it is time to fill in any gaps in the collection...

That brings up a thought.......... Could this be an orchestrated leak to boost sales? :-o

JohnG · 03 Aug 2006

It's still very telling that the last remaining CD "superstore" is J&R MusicWorld left in NYC. And even that place is a shell of its former self. I rarely get down there (used to work nearby for 5 years now over 25 years ago!) but damn that was a fun place to visit in the 80's.
Still great to see all that music laid out over the entire floor.

Compare that to a Target or BestBuy where the music is now essentially 2 or 3 rows.

JosephC · **Joined:** 27 Jan 2011 **Posts:** 2664

Was looking to purchase the expanded remaster (2001 I think) of Kansas Leftoverture only to find that it is out of print in the USA. Even though it still can be obtained as an import at a reasonable price, it was still discouraging to see what is probably the most popular title in their catalog as being discontinued. Really hard for me to believe a catalog title like this one is apparently no longer worth manufacturing?

Just wondering if that's what record labels plan to do with artists like this...dump a Complete Album Collection on the market and use that as the only means to make physical product available to the consumer?

Geff R. · 27 Sep 2006

JohnG wrote:

It's still very telling that the last remaining CD "superstore" is J&R MusicWorld left in NYC. And even that place is a shell of its former self. I rarely get down there (used to work nearby for 5 years now over 25 years ago!) but damn that was a fun place to visit in the 80's.
Still great to see all that music laid out over the entire floor.

Compare that to a Target or BestBuy where the music is now essentially 2 or 3 rows.

There's also still some FYE's at least on the west coast. Not a super store, but they are still pretty close to being full service.

JosephC · **Joined:** 27 Jan 2011 **Posts:** 2664

Ignore my earlier post, looks like the expanded Leftoverture is available as a two-fer with Point of Know Return.

Dr. Chris Evil · 26 Jul 2006

A little optimism for the CD's future shines in this thread. I hope this guy is right -- if CD sales account for 70% of music sales, then it would be foolish to abandon the format altogether.

http://ultimateclassicrock.com/could-we ... s-in-2012/

Could We Really Say Goodbye to CDs in 2012?
by: Jeff Giles

It’s no secret that sales of physical music have plummeted in the 21st century, with consumers’ growing preferences for streaming and downloading songs sending the industry into a tailspin that it’s only started to shake itself out of over the last few years.

But even if CDs aren’t as hot as they were during their ’90s peak, most consumers still think of the compact disc as the predominant format — which is why it came as such a shock when a recent report surfaced claiming the major labels will phase out CDs for good in 2012.

It bears mentioning right up front that the report, published at Side-Line.com, is anonymously sourced — and that CDs still account for more than 70 percent of album sales in the U.S., so we’d probably all do well to take the whole thing with a giant grain of salt.

Billboard columnist Glenn Peoples said as much in a recent feature, dismissing the report as “dubious” before stating flatly, “there is no major label plan to abandon the CD format by the end of 2012.” Continued Peoples, “A major corporation isn’t going to take such incredibly drastic measure. Can you imagine what the recorded music divisions of EMI or Warner Music Group would fetch if they stopped selling CDs?”

Still, as with many sweeping pronouncements that don’t seem to hit the mark, the Side-Line report bears a kernel of truth. As the article points out, digital formats enjoy a cost advantage; ditching CDs would mean unloading the financial burden of manufacturing, storing, and shipping them. Eventually, the bottom line could very well dictate abandoning physical formats entirely. In the short term, however, it doesn’t seem likely.

Are you ready to give up CDs (or vinyl) and go all-digital with your music library? Hit the comments and let us know!

Geff R. · 27 Sep 2006

I had never heard of "Side-Line.com" before this controversy, so until we get some confirmations, I'm taking with a whole bunch of salt.

alantig · 20 Sep 2006

What's a little scary is how often the side-line.com report is being cited as an example of 'industry experts'. Every article I've read that mentions the impending demise - either positively or negatively - references only this report. I'm a little suspect.

Linda · **Posted:** Wed Nov 16, 2011 12:22 am

Linda wrote:

JohnG wrote:

http://www.side-line.com/news_comments. ... 80_0_2_0_C

It reads like he's making predictions based on his feelings, educated guesses no different than what anyone else could make, not based on genuine inside information

I should have just said, "He pulled it out of his ass."

Geff R. · 27 Sep 2006

Linda wrote:

JohnG wrote:

http://www.side-line.com/news_comments. ... 80_0_2_0_C

It reads like he's making predictions based on his feelings, educated guesses no different than what anyone else could make, not based on genuine inside information

I should have just said, "He pulled it out of his ass."

Glenn S. · 30 Oct 2006

Geff R. wrote:

I had never heard of "Side-Line.com" before this controversy, so until we get some confirmations, I'm taking with a whole bunch of salt.

Yeah, this reminds me of the "Internet Explorer users have lower IQ's" stories from earlier this year. Those reports also referenced a web site no one had ever heard of, and the whole thing turned out to be a hoax.

JohnG · 03 Aug 2006

I don't see 2012 as the end of the CD but the end of retail CD sales. The CD has a few years to go but finding the ones you want in a store is quickly evaporating.

The end of CD in 2012?

Who is WANline