it s the browns total lack of judgment in human nature that took them down this road. baker mayfield became an icon in cleveland almost overnight, he treated the fans, the team and the town like it was his own and they fucked him right in old butt when the they gave watson the deed to the terminal tower in downtown cleveland.

watson has 2 more years on that 230,000,000 million dollar contract........you have to figure next year will be a rehab year from surgery so that will give him one more..........wonder what the over/under is on how many total games watson will play with the browns before the contract runs out in 2025. i think he 10 so far in 2 years.

My over under on the remaining term of the contract is probably 13.5 games over the last 2 seasons, and I'm almost positive he's not a Brown when the contract expires.

Really great research. It's absolutely insane at how hard it is to evaluate that position.

Sorry, I'm not sure if you're saying that I was saying any QB taken at the top of the draft will be a lock to be good? Because I wasn't, but I couldn't tell if you thought I was or if you were just elaborating in the conversation.



Peyton is also the last #1 overall QB who won a Super Bowl with the team who drafted him.



Also because most QB draft picks go bust no matter where they are in the draft. According to this site I just found, from the 2013 draft onward, there have been 127 QBs taken in the draft, with this many in each round (I separated out top fives since those are such premium draft picks) --

• Top Three - 16 QBs chosen from 2013-2023
• Picks 4-32 - 17 QBs chosen from 2013-2023
• 2nd Round - 9 QBs chosen from 2013-2023
• 3nd Round - 15 QBs chosen from 2013-2023
• 4nd Round - 21 QBs chosen from 2013-2023
• 5nd Round - 14 QBs chosen from 2013-2023
• 6nd Round - 17 QBs chosen from 2013-2023
• 7nd Round - 18 QBs chosen from 2013-2023

I've bolded every QB who has proven to be a viable long-term starter or who has a starting position today, even if they're not great (which helps include rookies for 2022-2023 who might not be long-term starters). I didn't bold back-ups playing as a starter due to an injury to the team's preferred starter, such as Gardner Minshew or Zach Wilson. Keep in mind, I'm just saying a starter -- not even elite. Arranged by the round they were drafted in, we have -the following QBs... and I'll bold the ones I think have shown they are genuine SB contending QBs (too early to tell on Stroud and Purdy, IMO), but they could be as well).

• Top Three - 8 Starters (Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud)
• Picks 4-32 - 9 Starters (Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson)
• 2nd Round - 5 Starters (Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith)
• 3nd Round - 1 Starter (Desmond Ridder)
• 4nd Round - 1 Starter (Dak Prescott)
• 5nd Round - 1 Starter (Sam Howell)
• 6nd Round - 0 Starters
• 7nd Round - 1 Starter (Brock Purdy)

So it looks like the the first round is still the best place to find a franchise QB, even if your team is bad, because it's basically pure luck outside of that round. And if you have a top three pick and need a QB, it's not like you're going to trade back outside of the top three to later in the round because you're not sure who will be available.

Below in spoilers, because it's so long, is the list.

i think your number is a little too high, more like 11.5.........3 next year until he aggravates the surgery and then 8 in final year and then he gets hurt and becomes a free agent and signs for more money.

i am very close to calling him names, but i'll wait.

Well, the reason to call him names is because he's a scumbag -- no matter how well he plays.

But on this one, I can't blame a guy for getting injured. I'm sure he'd rather be playing the sport he loves instead of being in constant pain from a shoulder injury so bad it requires surgery.

Since we're talking about how QBs are assessed before coming into the NFL, I'm going to post these two assessments of the top two 2024 prospects, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye from The Ringer --

And just in case there's a surprise QB that no one saw coming like Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy, here's a list from the Athletic (with full write-ups in the article, though I'll post Sanders' write-up since he's a bigger name thanks to his father) --

https://theathletic.com/4942383/2023/10 ... rake-maye/

Tier 1 (Top-10 picks)
• Caleb Williams, USC
• Drake Maye, North Carolina

Tier 2 (First-round picks)
• J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
• Quinn Ewers, Texas

Tier 3 (Late first-round/early Day 2)
• Jayden Daniels, LSU
• Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

"It’s hard to say what will happen with Sanders. It’s not out of the question that he returns to Colorado for another year to finish up with superstar WR/CB Travis Hunter, make a ton of NIL money and play another season for his father.

If Sanders declares, though, could he also be a first-round pick? He has opened eyes all year with his processing, ability to adjust to what defenses are doing against him and general arm talent. The natural instincts and poise Sanders plays with are impossible to ignore. Whenever he declares, those traits will glow brighter than the question marks he’ll carry on many final scouting reports."

Tier 4 (Day 2/early Day 3)
• Bo Nix, Oregon
• Michael Penix Jr., Washington
• Riley Leonard, Duke
• Michael Pratt, Tulane

Tier 5 (Day 3/UDFA)
• Sam Hartman, Notre Dame
• Cameron Ward, Washington State
• Jordan Travis, Florida State
• Devin Leary, Kentucky
• Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina
• DJ Uiagalelei, Oregon State
• Austin Reed, Western Kentucky
• Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma
• Joe Milton III, Tennessee
• Jalon Daniels, Kansas
• Spencer Rattler, South Carolina

Tier 6 (Shot at an NFL camp)
• Will Rogers, Mississippi State
• KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
• Kurtis Rourke, Ohio
• Carson Beck, Georgia
• Kyle McCord, Ohio State
• Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
• Tyler Van Dyke, Miami
• Will Howard, Kansas State

Eagles beat the Chiefs in KC 21-17 on MNF in a huge showdown.

Hurts gutted it out and had 2 rushing TDs, Smith had 6 grabs for 99 yards, the Swift I care about had over 100 yards combined and a TD and Byard was a beast on defense with 8 tackles and an Interception in the end zone that was huge.

What a trade that was by Howie to steal him from the Titans.

Valdez-Scantling dropped a wide open TD for the Chiefs late that was proof of how awful he is.

The Eagles are 9-1, best in football.

I’m enjoying this thoroughly.

browns sign 38 year-old joe flacco

i don't think they have a whole lot of faith in their rookie QB.

Well I certainly hope no one other than myself watched the Jets yesterday. I would apologize for this turd of a team but I’m not making the decisions.
Thank goodness we have some good games on the schedule tomorrow like Buffalo at Philadelphia to wash out the bad taste in my mouth.

there is penalty, on what seems like, every play......the NFL has to figure out a way to slow that shit down, it's becoming a joke.

Yeah, that was tough. It had me missing Zach Wilson, which is saying something. No point in Rodgers rushing back at this point.

At least the Bills at Eagles made up for some bad weekend games, that was quite a thriller. Just doesn’t seem to be the Bills year.

Chiefs rally from 14 down to walk away in Vegas, but that’s not unusual.

I agree on both of these points. Although the Chiefs kind of had the feel like they figured it would be a cake walk, got punched in the mouth, and had to wake up to win.

I also wish it hadn't have been raining quite that hard in the Eagles game. Not that it impacted the outcome, I think, but the game would have been a little crisper.

I'm almost positive the 7 NFC playoff teams are the ones currently in place. There is a gap between 7 and 8.
I think that 2 of the 3 AFC WC's are coming out of the North, and Cincy won't be one of them
I think it will be Houston instead of Indy as a wildcard team.
I think the Chiefs are more vulnerable than they've ever been under Reid / Mahomes.
As a result of KC, Buffalo, and Cincy falling off, I think Jackson have huge things to prove in the playoffs this year. There is an opportunity, and if the Ravens can't seize it, questions are going to be asked.

Jason

Yeah, there have been some self-inflicted wounds but there's also been some bad luck. Gabe Davis was open for the winning TD but Allen and him weren't on the same page for that option route. Reminds me of when Valdes-Scantling dropped the winning TD for the Chiefs against the Eagles the week before.



Really? The final two seeds (Seahawks and Vikings) are 6-5 while there's three teams only two games back (Packers, Saints, and Rams). I could see strength of schedule being the determining factor for who gets in there. The Seahawks were smoked by the Niners in Seattle and then have to go play them again in Levis Stadium in two weeks... but not before playing the Cowboys in Dallas. And after that, they have to past the Eagles... so there's three games against tough teams that I think will be tough to win. Meanwhile, Vikings have a back-up QB, and while he's been playing well enough, the wheels on that sort of thing could fall off pretty easily.

Meanwhile, the Packers and Saints have a few tough games left, but nothing that seems unwinnable... especially since the Packers just beat the Lions on Thanksgiving.



A couple weeks ago, I would have agreed -- but I don't see the Browns playing a back-up as much of a sure bet, especially with Myles Garrett wearing a sling on his arm after the game. There's nothing left on the schedule that's unwinnable, but I don't see the Jaguars, Texans, or Rams as easy wins either. And honestly, I could easily see them losing to the Jets, who are in a similar situation -- great defense, but mediocre back-up QBs.

The Steelers, I think are a safe bet as their schedule is pretty soft and they've managed to build up a reasonable lead in the standings. We'll see how long they can keep winning games while still gaining less yards than the other team though... much like their 11-0 season, I think the luck has to run out at some point, but maybe they can hold on until the end of December.



Could be, both have relatively soft schedules ahead and play each other at the end of the season, so that could end up being the deciding game. But again, their schedules are very soft from this point on, so I wouldn't be shocked if both make it in. But Indy has been so inconsistent and having watched every game, I think they're not a team you can count on -- especially with Minshew at QB, who runs very hot and cold -- so I can easily see them losing many winnable games... like they did at the end of 2021 to miss the playoffs.



I agree, but then their defense is the best they've ever had during their run, so if they can get those receivers on the same page as Mahomes, it's hard to bet against them. They are definitely the new Brady / Belichick of the AFC -- I won't ever count them out until they have been officially knocked out of contention. Until then, they're the favorites to win against any team they play in my book.



Yeah, this is definitely the most wide-open it's ever been for a team that isn't one of those three to make a serious Super Bowl run. And I think they match up very well against the Eagles and Niners. Did you see those stats last night? Their defense is trending at a 2000 Ravens level, so if that holds, I think they're the favorite to win it all in my book.

Woof, this makes Buffalo's situation sound so bleak.


https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/11/2 ... r-lawrence

That streak ended yesterday - they put up 421 to the Bengals' 222 (with Karen Valentine). The change at OC provided them with a much different play-calling philosophy - they threw more to the middle of the field than they probably did the entirety of the Matt Canada era. Definitely not a polished product, but it looks much better.

Much as I’d love to be wrong, I just don’t see the Seahawks making the playoffs this year, barring some miracles. Geno Smith just isn't the guy. He’s adequate, but he’s not winning games on his own, and the OC isn’t doing him any favors. At this point I’m predicting they end up third in the NFCW, and out of the WC picture by Xmas.

He's not a QB so it didn't make huge news, but the Colts cut Shaq Leonard last Tuesday, which was a huge bummer for me since he's one of my all-time favorite players. He was on a Hall of Fame trajectory before his back injury (see below) and I was really hoping he'd heal and put it all back together again. And maybe he will, but sadly not for the Colts. They also installed a new defensive scheme that didn't suit his strengths either.






On top of it all, he's a true class act. He was handing out turkeys the day he was released, not letting the bad news keep him from commitments to the community, and he was seen in the box yesterday, cheering on the team that just cut him. Lots of rumors he might get picked up by the Cowboys or Eagles, but I'll pull for him no matter where he goes.

Stupid NFL won't let people embed videos for some reason, but for those inclined, this highlight reel showcases what a special player he was. If you like seeing linebackers intercept the football and force fumbles, give this a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSX1QiUM44s

massive response instead of cuttting; technically at work, at that stuff's hard

On the NFC, there's divisional rivalries, always tricky to call, and real doubts about New Orleans and Green Bay. and without getting into all the tie breakers - since I don't know them - but making up 2 games with 6 to go means going 5-1 and hoping for tie breakers if Seattle and Vikings go 500; even 4-2 might not get you there. I was just surprised when I noticed the 2 game gap last week, and its still there now. Not saying it can't happen (Seattle, as noted, has a really tough schedule), but I don't have any faith in the chasing teams.

On the AFC, I guess I trust Cleveland's defense more than I trust Indy's offense, and I think that's what the 7 seed comes down to. Assuming Texans or Jags are WC from the south, and Pittsburgh are 1 WC from the North. The Chargers are done, and Buffalo has a brutal schedule. So I think it's Indy or Cleveland.

I agree with your position on KC - to be the man, you have to beat the man, after all - but they are relatively vulnerable. The last few years, I've assumed them to the SB, this year is different. I'd be surprised if they don't make it, but not shocked.

And fair or not, I still have a perception of Jackson as a running QB, instead of a QB who runs, and I can't recall a running QB winning a SB. So I'm curious to see if someone who is as great as he is can break that stereotype.

I did see that story, and it makes me think there's something that someone isn't telling us about this situation.