With sales plummeting, even though the live action stuff has never been hotter, is there any hope for a rebound?
With anime selling well, are the plunging sales due to product and distribution?
I put a lot of the blame on the big two product myself. The DM was too dependent on them and they suck royally. When we were kids, the comics were always superior to the live action stuff. No longer, especially for younger fans who are MCU fans but never moved into comics.
_________________ DISCLAIMER: Everything I say from here on in is my opinion, semantics be damned. Allen Berrebbi Owner KRB Media
With sales plummeting, even though the live action stuff has never been hotter, is there any hope for a rebound?
With anime selling well, are the plunging sales due to product and distribution?
I put a lot of the blame on the big two product myself. The DM was too dependent on them and they suck royally. When we were kids, the comics were always superior to the live action stuff. No longer, especially for younger fans who are MCU fans but never moved into comics.
The main challenges with the current state of affairs:
The content of the books 1. They long ago gave up on the "every issue is someone's first issue" mentality, and it's locked out new, casual, and intermittent readers, because you can't pick up occasional issues and enjoy them. It's the difference between watching episode 4 in this season's Law and Order or NCIS, and watching episode 4 of the Mandalorian. Drop a person into both worlds without any knowledge whatsoever, and one they will understand perfectly, and one they won't. and if they don't understand it, most people won't be back to figure it out. 2. The dependence on cross-over / lengthy story arcs / collector's mentallty as a revenue tool. Linked to the first point, but slightly different, the big 2 are trying to sell more and more books to fewer and fewer people. And each lost reader becomes a bigger proportion of the revenue of the industry. And the commitment to a story is just too big and too expensive to explore a book casually 3. The quality of the stories - I actually have no idea if the stories put out by DC / Marvel are any good anymore. the two points above drove me away, so I don't know if there's a new Dan Slott, or Geoff Johns, or Kurt Busiek or Mark Waid putting out great stuff now. There probably is, but I'm not going to pan for gold to try and find them. 4. Creator rights / unique stories - there's been a marked decrease in people willing to create new characters / concepts for the Big 2, because of work for hire. No one wants to give their lottery ticket ideas (like Deadpool) to one of the big 2, and then miss out. So the stories keep travelling over the same old characters, doing the same old thing.
The state of the industry 1. A factor that I didn't think was going to be as big a deal as its turning out to be is the death of Diamond distributors. I've spoken about it a bunch with my comic guy, and eliminating Diamond has driven their shipping costs through the roof. Without Diamond consolidating books from all companies into a single shipment, the fixed cost for the first book is now a cost per the first book per company, and the bulk shipping discount threshold now isn't being met, because they're not ordering as many books from any one source. This in turn means they're not willing to order from smaller publishers, where 5-10 books would have just been dropped in their Marvel box, it's now its own cost. this means that stores' risk on order 2-3 issues of a new book are now much higher, and not worth it. So new books / characters aren't getting a chance to find an audience. 2. The further decline of brick and mortar stores; it was bad when comics were limited to Walmart and B&N / Indigo, but now, even those are bailing on non-trades. so when you combine the quality difficulty with the lack of impulse buy locations, and they've completely cut off new buyers. And Covid did a number on the Independent shops, since they are so dependent on impulse buys from people with collections, and all that got moved to Amazon. 3. The lack of clarity in trade paperback publication. Anime gets this right, the big 2 really, really do not. If you truly want to market your content as serialized content, then you have to publish your books so your readers can tell it's serialized content, and exactly where to start- title, volume number, covered issues, etc. But when I look at the wall of Batman or Spider-Man TPB, I'm lost as to where to start. 4. Other media as "All Star content". The thing with both the live action and animated movies and TV shows is that, for the most part, they get to cherry pick iconic stories or mix and match elements from 50-100 years of character history and stories to create takes on the characters that are a much higher average quality than the average monthly book. I think you can already see this in the Phase 4 blowback on Marvel; the deeper they mine, the lower the quality of the gems left unfound.
I know it's a depressing take on it (not trying to be UNWAN), but at this point, I'm kind of looking forward to the point where these toys get put on the shelf for a little while. They're showing their age, and really need to be put away until someone can come along and tell something new. They're never going to go away - I figure 5-10 of them will be evergreen, like Sherlock Holmes or Star Trek, but we don't need 20 hours of Batman / Spiderman / Wolverine content every year.
My answer to this is Covid - there were so few entertainment options available in 2020 and 2021 that those forms of entertainment that could still generate new content (like monthly comics or novels) were able to see a significant increase in revenue, because there was nowhere else for people's entertainment dollars to go. No sports, no movies, limited new TV series, no concerts, no restaurants, no travel, and enforced isolation. So yep, the publishing industries (and streaming) saw a major increase in sales, but it's not going to last. Once people get back to normal, they will again stop buying new comics.
Worse than the return of new books to pre-Covid levels though is that the back catalogue sales of TPB's that may have sustained readers' impulse buys / gifts / curiosity / continued engagement with the industry just got concentrated into a single 24 month window, Now, these readers will be much less likely to find anything (new or back catalogue) they're interested in when they go into their local shop, because they bought anything they had any possible interest in during Covid. And once they walk out of their store without buying anything a few times, they'll stop going entirely. So there will never be an opportunity to sell something new to this now ex-comic book reader.
so there will be mainstream crossover flare ups of non-big 2 products (Sandman, Preacher, the Boys), and the Evergreen books (Watchmen, DKR, Maus) will continue to sell. But new content won't have the critical mass required to sustain the distribution channel, making 2021 the last flare up of a guttering candle...
Comics aren’t going anywhere, and the stores that have adapted to the marketplace by not being comic exclusive have survived.
Even if comic shops, the Direct Market and DC/Marvel/Image/Dark Horse go away, comics will still be around. Stuff like Lore Olympus, Dumbing of Age and Questionable Content will keep things going.
With sales plummeting, even though the live action stuff has never been hotter, is there any hope for a rebound?
With anime selling well, are the plunging sales due to product and distribution?
I put a lot of the blame on the big two product myself. The DM was too dependent on them and they suck royally. When we were kids, the comics were always superior to the live action stuff. No longer, especially for younger fans who are MCU fans but never moved into comics.
I think price, content, format and availability are the problems. I also thing making things Collectables is a mug's game - good for a temporary boost, but fads go away.
But what do I know? I thought Funko Pops would be long gone by now, and they've been going strong for over a decade.
The main challenges with the current state of affairs:
The content of the books 1. They long ago gave up on the "every issue is someone's first issue" mentality, and it's locked out new, casual, and intermittent readers, because you can't pick up occasional issues and enjoy them. It's the difference between watching episode 4 in this season's Law and Order or NCIS, and watching episode 4 of the Mandalorian. Drop a person into both worlds without any knowledge whatsoever, and one they will understand perfectly, and one they won't. and if they don't understand it, most people won't be back to figure it out. 2. The dependence on cross-over / lengthy story arcs / collector's mentallty as a revenue tool. Linked to the first point, but slightly different, the big 2 are trying to sell more and more books to fewer and fewer people. And each lost reader becomes a bigger proportion of the revenue of the industry. And the commitment to a story is just too big and too expensive to explore a book casually 3. The quality of the stories - I actually have no idea if the stories put out by DC / Marvel are any good anymore. the two points above drove me away, so I don't know if there's a new Dan Slott, or Geoff Johns, or Kurt Busiek or Mark Waid putting out great stuff now. There probably is, but I'm not going to pan for gold to try and find them. 4. Creator rights / unique stories - there's been a marked decrease in people willing to create new characters / concepts for the Big 2, because of work for hire. No one wants to give their lottery ticket ideas (like Deadpool) to one of the big 2, and then miss out. So the stories keep travelling over the same old characters, doing the same old thing.
The state of the industry 1. A factor that I didn't think was going to be as big a deal as its turning out to be is the death of Diamond distributors. I've spoken about it a bunch with my comic guy, and eliminating Diamond has driven their shipping costs through the roof. Without Diamond consolidating books from all companies into a single shipment, the fixed cost for the first book is now a cost per the first book per company, and the bulk shipping discount threshold now isn't being met, because they're not ordering as many books from any one source. This in turn means they're not willing to order from smaller publishers, where 5-10 books would have just been dropped in their Marvel box, it's now its own cost. this means that stores' risk on order 2-3 issues of a new book are now much higher, and not worth it. So new books / characters aren't getting a chance to find an audience. 2. The further decline of brick and mortar stores; it was bad when comics were limited to Walmart and B&N / Indigo, but now, even those are bailing on non-trades. so when you combine the quality difficulty with the lack of impulse buy locations, and they've completely cut off new buyers. And Covid did a number on the Independent shops, since they are so dependent on impulse buys from people with collections, and all that got moved to Amazon. 3. The lack of clarity in trade paperback publication. Anime gets this right, the big 2 really, really do not. If you truly want to market your content as serialized content, then you have to publish your books so your readers can tell it's serialized content, and exactly where to start- title, volume number, covered issues, etc. But when I look at the wall of Batman or Spider-Man TPB, I'm lost as to where to start. 4. Other media as "All Star content". The thing with both the live action and animated movies and TV shows is that, for the most part, they get to cherry pick iconic stories or mix and match elements from 50-100 years of character history and stories to create takes on the characters that are a much higher average quality than the average monthly book. I think you can already see this in the Phase 4 blowback on Marvel; the deeper they mine, the lower the quality of the gems left unfound.
I know it's a depressing take on it (not trying to be UNWAN), but at this point, I'm kind of looking forward to the point where these toys get put on the shelf for a little while. They're showing their age, and really need to be put away until someone can come along and tell something new. They're never going to go away - I figure 5-10 of them will be evergreen, like Sherlock Holmes or Star Trek, but we don't need 20 hours of Batman / Spiderman / Wolverine content every year.
My $0.02
Agree with you and very insightful on the Diamond mention. Every time the distribution options lessen, stores go out of business. And we need critical mass of places to discover comics. Heroes World and then the exclusives which killed Capital Distribution, which was far superior to Diamond for the shops, killed a hug chunk of the stores. I remember when there were local distribution centers where stores could just pick up their books ad get reorders etc. No shipping.
Jason Gore wrote:
My answer to this is Covid - there were so few entertainment options available in 2020 and 2021 that those forms of entertainment that could still generate new content (like monthly comics or novels) were able to see a significant increase in revenue, because there was nowhere else for people's entertainment dollars to go. No sports, no movies, limited new TV series, no concerts, no restaurants, no travel, and enforced isolation. So yep, the publishing industries (and streaming) saw a major increase in sales, but it's not going to last. Once people get back to normal, they will again stop buying new comics.
Worse than the return of new books to pre-Covid levels though is that the back catalogue sales of TPB's that may have sustained readers' impulse buys / gifts / curiosity / continued engagement with the industry just got concentrated into a single 24 month window, Now, these readers will be much less likely to find anything (new or back catalogue) they're interested in when they go into their local shop, because they bought anything they had any possible interest in during Covid. And once they walk out of their store without buying anything a few times, they'll stop going entirely. So there will never be an opportunity to sell something new to this now ex-comic book reader.
so there will be mainstream crossover flare ups of non-big 2 products (Sandman, Preacher, the Boys), and the Evergreen books (Watchmen, DKR, Maus) will continue to sell. But new content won't have the critical mass required to sustain the distribution channel, making 2021 the last flare up of a guttering candle...
Well said. That critical mass concerns me.
_________________ DISCLAIMER: Everything I say from here on in is my opinion, semantics be damned. Allen Berrebbi Owner KRB Media
With sales plummeting, even though the live action stuff has never been hotter, is there any hope for a rebound?
Are they plummeting? From Forbes --
Quote:
2021 Comic Sales Were ‘Up, Up And Away,’ At A Record $2 Billion
New data shows that comics publishing in North America grew at an unprecedented 60% clip year-over-year between 2020 and 2021, according to data shared by third party industry-watchers ICv2 and Comichron. Sales leapt from an already record-setting 2020 total of $1.28 billion to approximately $2.075 billion. That’s the highest total ever measured for sales of periodical comics, graphic novels and digital comics, with just about every segment of the market showing enormous growth.
The 2021 numbers surpass previous high points in the history of comics publishing. In 1993, at the peak of a speculator boom, sales hit $1.6 billion (inflation-adjusted). “The pricier product mix [even] puts 2021 ahead of what the colossal circulations of the early 1950s brought in, also adjusted for inflation,” said Comichron’s John Jackson Miller.
[...] Over the past decade, sales growth was led by graphic novels aimed at younger readers and manga, both of which were primarily sold through bookstores rather than comic book stores. That trend continued, with over $1.1 billion worth of comics sold through the trade book channel in 2021, nearly equaling the total of all comics sold through all channels in 2019.
This year, growth was across the board. “Sales were up across all types of retailers,” said Milton Griepp, president of ICv2. “Sales through comic stores were up 60% vs. last year and 34% vs. 2019; sales through the book channel, including book fairs (which were back in operation) grew at a blistering 81% pace. Digital growth, while slower, was coming off a gangbuster year in 2020 during the shutdowns.”
The bottom line looks to be that kids still love comics -- they just don't want the comics Marvel and DC sell, generally speaking. When you look at the books they want, they're far away from what the big two put out today... and what they put out in the 60s, 70s, 80s, etc.
I mean stuff like Naruto, for example. According to Wikipedia --
"As of 2017, Naruto is the third best-selling manga series in history, selling more than 220 million copies worldwide in 35 countries outside Japan. It has become one of Viz Media's best-selling manga series; their English translations of the volumes have appeared on USA Today and The New York Times bestseller list several times, and the seventh volume won a Quill Award in 2006."
It looks horrible to me. Horrible. It all just confirms to me that I don't know what anyone out there wants, especially young people. As successful as he was, I don't know that Jack Kirby sold 220 million total comics in his... what, 60 or 70 year career? Take a look below. This is what the kiddos want, apparently.
I've come to realize I have no idea what anyone wants except me. I've looked through Naruto, My Hero Academia, Dog Man, Raina Telgemeier's stuff, etc. and it all seems completely unappealing -- if I was an editor, I would have stupidly passed on all of those books. And they're the top selling series in the country now, absolutely crushing everything else out there.
Even if we took the kids stuff out of the mix, I don't even understand why hardcore comic fans about my age want what they want. Batman, the Joker, Harley Quinn, etc. all seem played out to me, with nowhere to real go from a story or character perspective -- but the fans just absolutely love it. That X-Men relaunch, "House of X," seems based on a bizarre and convoluted premise, and it's totally reinvigorated the franchise in the DSM. I don't understand why most people like what they like, even people in my own demographic.
Meanwhile, just about everything I like is considered niche and sells peanuts. The alternate superhero stuff like Savage Dragon and Copra are low sellers, the non-Conan sword and sorcery stuff like Head Lopper is a low seller, and stuff in the vein of Kirby like Tom Scioli's work is a low seller. Guys who do really good stuff like Alan Davis, Jerry Ordway, Ron Frenz, Steve Rude, etc. all seem like they can't get anything going but random odd jobs for Marvel or DC. Chris Claremont and Marv Wolfman can't even get arrested these days.
So who am I to know what will sell to the masses? My opinion on this topic is likely more than just uninformed, it's probably dead wrong. If a genie made me the EIC of Marvel's comic division, all my great ideas would probably run it into the ground. I'm an old man now and I'm content to like my old man stuff, LOL.
Yep. That's why I love the Bronze Age comics so much. It's where I grew up. And, as it turns out, I was lucky to have not been able to afford every book back then. There's still plenty of Bronze Age goodness out there left for me to acquire and devour. Enough to keep me happy in retirement.
Yet stores are closing and DC and Marvel are talking about getting out of publishing. It makes no sense unless its manga carrying the load and old trades in the bookstores. Which doesn't help the DM at all.
Hanzo the Razor wrote:
The bottom line looks to be that kids still love comics -- they just don't want the comics Marvel and DC sell, generally speaking. When you look at the books they want, they're far away from what the big two put out today... and what they put out in the 60s, 70s, 80s, etc.
I mean stuff like Naruto, for example. According to Wikipedia --
"As of 2017, Naruto is the third best-selling manga series in history, selling more than 220 million copies worldwide in 35 countries outside Japan. It has become one of Viz Media's best-selling manga series; their English translations of the volumes have appeared on USA Today and The New York Times bestseller list several times, and the seventh volume won a Quill Award in 2006."
It looks horrible to me. Horrible. It all just confirms to me that I don't know what anyone out there wants, especially young people. As successful as he was, I don't know that Jack Kirby sold 220 million total comics in his... what, 60 or 70 year career? Take a look below. This is what the kiddos want, apparently.
I've come to realize I have no idea what anyone wants except me. I've looked through Naruto, My Hero Academia, Dog Man, Raina Telgemeier's stuff, etc. and it all seems completely unappealing -- if I was an editor, I would have stupidly passed on all of those books. And they're the top selling series in the country now, absolutely crushing everything else out there.
Even if we took the kids stuff out of the mix, I don't even understand why hardcore comic fans about my age want what they want. Batman, the Joker, Harley Quinn, etc. all seem played out to me, with nowhere to real go from a story or character perspective -- but the fans just absolutely love it. That X-Men relaunch, "House of X," seems based on a bizarre and convoluted premise, and it's totally reinvigorated the franchise in the DSM. I don't understand why most people like what they like, even people in my own demographic.
Meanwhile, just about everything I like is considered niche and sells peanuts. The alternate superhero stuff like Savage Dragon and Copra are low sellers, the non-Conan sword and sorcery stuff like Head Lopper is a low seller, and stuff in the vein of Kirby like Tom Scioli's work is a low seller. Guys who do really good stuff like Alan Davis, Jerry Ordway, Ron Frenz, Steve Rude, etc. all seem like they can't get anything going but random odd jobs for Marvel or DC. Chris Claremont and Marv Wolfman can't even get arrested these days.
So who am I to know what will sell to the masses? My opinion on this topic is likely more than just uninformed, it's probably dead wrong. If a genie made me the EIC of Marvel's comic division, all my great ideas would probably run it into the ground. I'm an old man now and I'm content to like my old man stuff, LOL.
I sometimes feel the same way. But kids do love anime AND they do love the MCU so there is a disconnect. I don't think it's necessarily the art in those books that make them sell as the stories which are fun and full of drama and actually end. The DM is geared towards aging fans.
Beachy wrote:
Yep. That's why I love the Bronze Age comics so much. It's where I grew up. And, as it turns out, I was lucky to have not been able to afford every book back then. There's still plenty of Bronze Age goodness out there left for me to acquire and devour. Enough to keep me happy in retirement.
There is PLENTY of old stuff to keep me happy, that's for sure,
_________________ DISCLAIMER: Everything I say from here on in is my opinion, semantics be damned. Allen Berrebbi Owner KRB Media
But kids do love anime AND they do love the MCU so there is a disconnect. I don't think it's necessarily the art in those books that make them sell as the stories which are fun and full of drama and actually end.
The stories are a big part, absolutely, but I have to assume the art is appealing as well. No matter how good a movie's script is, bad / amateurish cinematography and special effects will ruin it for the viewer. With comics, I think people need to connect with the art enough to enjoy it on some level.
Think about your favorite Superman comics from when you were a kid -- if Rob Liefeld drew them, they probably wouldn't seem as great, no? In fact, his art might be so unappealing you can't stand to look at it long enough to read it.
Yet stores are closing and DC and Marvel are talking about getting out of publishing. It makes no sense unless its manga carrying the load and old trades in the bookstores. Which doesn't help the DM at all.
Did you look at the article? It said sales are up across all channels, including the DSM --
"Sales through comic stores were up 60% vs. last year and 34% vs. 2019..."
Yet stores are closing and DC and Marvel are talking about getting out of publishing. It makes no sense unless its manga carrying the load and old trades in the bookstores. Which doesn't help the DM at all.
Did you look at the article? It said sales are up across all channels, including the DSM --
"Sales through comic stores were up 60% vs. last year and 34% vs. 2019..."
I did but I find it hard to believe. Something is missing, otherwose new shops would be opening up and the big two would not be thinking of dropping printed books. There is a piece missing. We know they are not selling in NUMBERS anywhere near the past so what is the missing piece?
_________________ DISCLAIMER: Everything I say from here on in is my opinion, semantics be damned. Allen Berrebbi Owner KRB Media
I did but I find it hard to believe. Something is missing, otherwose new shops would be opening up and the big two would not be thinking of dropping printed books. There is a piece missing. We know they are not selling in NUMBERS anywhere near the past so what is the missing piece?
That I couldn't tell you -- I don't know how many stores are opening and closing. I know the pandemic killed some pretty legendary stores, such as my beloved St. Mark's Comics, but not sure if any opened in their stead.
One thing I'll note is that I believe the large mail order services like DCSB, CheapGraphicNovels.com, MyComicShop.com, etc. also count toward Direct Market sales even if the bulk of their sales are through the internet.
Just from anecdotal experience, I can tell you that the Maryland area I live in seems to be a pretty hot area for comics, D&D, and a lot of other nerdy pop culture. It's an outlier to be sure, but the top store in this area is Third Eye Comics and they've been doing nothing but expanding since they opened about 15 years ago. It started out as a hole-in-the-wall type shop that I thought would be closed in a couple years to becoming a massive super-store with five (!) sister stores in the Maryland / Virginia area. And it almost exclusively deals in new books, with back issues being something they only started carrying in small quantities a few years back (and it's a lame selection, IMO).
But in terms of new books, they're carrying just about everything out there. And they're bringing in a far more diverse audience than a typical comic store -- when I go to most other "dungeon" type stores, it's mostly just guys like me -- hardcore fans over 30. But Third Eye brings in lots of teenagers, women, families, couples, etc. It's a totally different crowd. Just look at the crowd that comes out for Free Comic Book Day:
Ah, I guess that's the older location, they moved into a larger one -- but that video is still good to see the kinds of people that go there. When was a teenager, Inever thought I'd see so many girls in a comic shop. I was born in the wrong time, LOL.
I did but I find it hard to believe. Something is missing, otherwose new shops would be opening up and the big two would not be thinking of dropping printed books. There is a piece missing. We know they are not selling in NUMBERS anywhere near the past so what is the missing piece?
That I couldn't tell you -- I don't know how many stores are opening and closing. I know the pandemic killed some pretty legendary stores, such as my beloved St. Mark's Comics, but not sure if any opened in their stead.
One thing I'll note is that I believe the large mail order services like DCSB, CheapGraphicNovels.com, MyComicShop.com, etc. also count toward Direct Market sales even if the bulk of their sales are through the internet.
Just from anecdotal experience, I can tell you that the Maryland area I live in seems to be a pretty hot area for comics, D&D, and a lot of other nerdy pop culture. It's an outlier to be sure, but the top store in this area is Third Eye Comics and they've been doing nothing but expanding since they opened about 15 years ago. It started out as a hole-in-the-wall type shop that I thought would be closed in a couple years to becoming a massive super-store with five (!) sister stores in the Maryland / Virginia area. And it almost exclusively deals in new books, with back issues being something they only started carrying in small quantities a few years back (and it's a lame selection, IMO).
But in terms of new books, they're carrying just about everything out there. And they're bringing in a far more diverse audience than a typical comic store -- when I go to most other "dungeon" type stores, it's mostly just guys like me -- hardcore fans over 30. But Third Eye brings in lots of teenagers, women, families, couples, etc. It's a totally different crowd. Just look at the crowd that comes out for Free Comic Book Day:
That's interesting. What do you think he does that brings in a crowd like that? Is it location, which most shops are penny-wise and dollar-foolish with that. Choosing the cheapest hole in a wall as opposed to potential foot traffic.
_________________ DISCLAIMER: Everything I say from here on in is my opinion, semantics be damned. Allen Berrebbi Owner KRB Media
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